A
few years ago when the barrel of crude petroleum was selling for over $100,
Nigerian economists and the global financial institutions – the World Bank and
IMF- measuring the change in GDP, claimed that Nigeria was one of the fastest
growing nations in the world. Now that crude petroleum has dropped to below $50
dollars per barrel, Nigeria is no more one of the fastest growing nations in
the world. Government and the Nigerian experts are again talking of
diversification of the economy as they usually do when oil prices are low. What
is diversification? The Honourable Finance Minister, Kemi Adeosun, in Dubai,
recently, while contributing in a panel discussion on Africa entitled:
"Sub-Saharan Africa, Just a Rough Patch," said that Nigeria is adapting
to its new realities and it is implementing fiscal policies to steer the
country back on its track for stable growth with a diversified economy.
Continuing, the Minister said, the real vulnerability of the Nigerian economy
is the over-dependence on a single source of revenue, oil. So we are doing a
combination of things to diversify our economy, with revenue mobilisation to
enable investment in developing the non-oil sectors. Economic diversification
is tantamount to investing in the non-oil sectors of the economy especially the
power, agriculture, solid minerals, housing and transportation. This was how
PDP governments 1999-2015 also conceived diversification.
The
PDP governments 1999-2015 and the APC government May 2015 till now, do not
understand what economic diversification entails. True economic diversification
is a fruit or aftermath of industrialisation. Mere capital investment in many
areas of an economy does not lead to true economic diversification.
The
region occupied by the modern Western Europe was harnessed into the Roman
Empire in 55 B. C. The western portion of the empire broke up in 406 A. D.
England and other modern nations of Western Europe were clearly defined in the
period between the 10th and 13th century. England, the most progressive 10th nation
in Europe then, achieved the first modern Industrial Revolution (IR) in the
period 1770-1850 (Gregg, 1971). When England achieved the first modern IR, the
roads in the nation were still those left by the Roman Empire, showing that
England did not build roads and telecommunications networks and other
structures as prerequisites to promoting sustainable growth and
industrialisation. But immediately England achieved the modern IR, good roads,
railways and tubes, canals and other infrastructure were developed rapidly as
aftermath of industrialisation (Gregg, 1971.)
History,
therefore, demonstrates that Britain, America, China and other technologically
advanced nations of today had to develop the people and the Knowledge, Skills
and Competence (KSC)-framework for solving the problems of their nations before
building the relevant infrastructure, because that is what nature and wisdom
suggest. The hibiscus flowering plant like other flowering plants, has the root
and shoot systems. Whereas the root system is buried in the soil, the shoot
which bears the beautiful flowers is usually above the ground. The root system
is always established before the shoot system. The beautiful bright-red 5-petal
flowers are borne by the shoot system. The shoot system expresses and announces
the healthy status of the root system. Once the root system is cut off from the
shoot system, the beautiful flowers wither. This explains why a nation should
not and cannot erect complex infrastructure before developing the necessary
knowledge, skills and competences (KSCs) for building and maintaining the
structures.
The
Nigerian government and Shell Petroleum Development Company assessed 50 years
of the Oil and Gas Industry (OGI) in 2006, after investing over $10 billion
every year, and concluded that there was nothing to show for it. Nigerians know
the state of the Nigerian economy and its infrastructure. Do Nigerians now have
the knowledge, skills and competences for exploiting the OGI today after FDIs
have flowed into it for over 50 year? Does our experience support the belief
that mere capital investment promotes Sustainable Economic Growth and
Industrialization (SEGI)? No! If our experience has disproved all our
assumptions, why our leaders still campaign for capital investments especially
FDIs? Can we build a nation by doing the things we know do not promote SEGI?
No! Are Nigerian leaders managing the economy for Nigerians or for foreigners
to make profit while Nigerians die in abject poverty? That does not mean well
for Nigerians and Nigeria. Our leaders must change immediately to save Nigeria.
The
research works of Charles Cobb (a mathematician) and Paul Douglas (economist)
in 1928, Douglas (1948), Abramowitz (1956) and Solow (1957) showed that capital
contributes very little to achieving SEGI. Gerschenkron (1966) examined the
Western industrialisation experience and concluded that capital investment was
not a prerequisite to it. Our scientific research in Obafemi Awolowo
University, using equations and graphs also showed that mere capital investment
does not promote SEGI. Nigeria has been stagnating because Nigeria's planning
is premised on the faulty premise that mere capital investments especially FDIs
promote growth. President Buhari can and should reverse the downward trend and
save Nigeria.
SOURCE: THE GUARDIAN